The following are the 10 contested races that we will be following Tuesday night. There are no contested Sheriff's races and Dave Armstrong (Assembly District 75) is running unopposed.
We first chose the races that were local political races covering our 6 county coverage areas: Barron, Burnett, Polk, Rusk, Sawyer, and Washburn counties. There are 4 Assembly races and 2 State Senate races. We then chose the 7th Congressional District as it covers all 6 of the counties we cover (among others in Northern Wisconsin). Lastly, we had to pick 3 more so -- with all due respect for the Secretary of State and State Treasure races -- we picked the 3 that have garnered the most attention: the U.S Senate, the Attorney General, and -- of course -- the Governor's race.
So here we go.
State Assembly District 28
Candidates
- (D) Patty Schachtner
- (R) Gae Magnafici (i)
Info
- DrydenWire Coverage Area Representing: Polk (plus others)
- Last election (2020): Gae Magnafici (R) defeated Kim Butler (D) 63.9 to 36.1
- CNalysis Rating: Solid Republican
- DrydenWire Prediction: Republican
Ben’s Prediction
If these predictions were based on my personal feelings toward each of the candidates, I’d want to say that this one is a toss-up just to be nice since I know each very well. But these predictions are not about my personal feelings. With that said, yeah, Gae should win re-election convincingly here. Gae has won her last 2 elections by a wide margin and I don't see any reason why that would change (even after losing Burnett County in the recent district re-alignment.) In fact, this could be one of the races that we’re following that the winner (Gae) wins by the widest margin.
State Assembly District 73
Candidates
- (D) Laura Gapske
- (R) Angela Sapik
Info
- Note: Incumbent Nick Milroy announced earlier this year that he would not be seeking re-election
- DrydenWire Coverage Area Representing: Burnett, Washburn (plus others)
- Last election (2020): Nick Milroy (D) defeated Keith Kern (R) 50.2 to 49.8
- CNalysis Rating: Leans Republican
- DrydenWire Prediction: Toss Up
Ben’s Prediction
Wow! This race has gotten ugly. Typically, the candidate that “goes negative” is the one that realizes they wouldn’t win if the elections were held that day. Considering the money (and negative ads) being run in this race tells me that neither feels confident that they will win. This is campaign politics at its worst (or best — depending on your point of view). This is the only NW Wisconsin-specific race that I just don’t know how it will end up. How much will those negative ads move the proverbial needle for both? Considering that the maps changed and the 73rd picked up all of Burnett County (which is mostly conservative voting county) in the recent map (*ahem*) “update,” and the fact that Milroy (D) only won the last election by 139 votes, I’m gonna say the Republican wins this one. I’ll pick Angie, however, I’m not confident in this pick at all.
State Assembly District 74
Candidates
- (D) John Adams
- (R) Chanz Green
Info
- Note: Incumbent Beth Meyers announced earlier this year that she would not be seeking re-election
- DrydenWire Coverage Area Representing: Sawyer (plus others)
- Last election (2020): Beth Meyers (D) defeated James Bolen (R) 51.5 to 48.5
- CNalysis Rating: Likely Republican
- DrydenWire Prediction: Republican
Ben’s Prediction
I can honestly say that I have not been following this race. I don’t know either candidate. So I will follow CNalysis on this and go Republican and pick Chanz Green. Also, the fact that the last election saw then-incumbent Beth Meyers receiving $800,000 in campaign contributions (which is insanely high for a rural Assembly District race — and an incumbent to boot!) and only won by 3 points!? Yeah, going Republican on this one.
State Assembly District 87
Candidates
- (D) Elizabeth Riley
- (R) James Edming (i)
Info
- DrydenWire Coverage Area Representing: Rusk (plus others)
- Last election (2020): James Edming (R) defeated Richard Pulcher 70.8 to 29.1
- CNalysis Rating: Solid Republican
- DrydenWire Prediction: Republican
Ben’s Prediction
James “Billy Boy” Edming. The interesting thing to see will be by just how much he wins. Democrats need to not be blown out by another 40 points like they did the last election if they have any hope of getting this seat back when Edming ultimately retires. Then again, maybe he won’t retire if he keeps winning by this much every election.
State Senate District 25
Candidates
- (D) Kelly Westlund
- (R) Romaine Quinn
Info
- Note: Incumbent Janet Bewley announced earlier this year that she would not be seeking re-election
- DrydenWire Coverage Area Representing: Barron, Burnett, Sawyer, Washburn (plus others)
- Last election (2018): Janet Bewley (D) defeated James Bolen (R) 51.1 to 48.9
- CNalysis Rating: Solid Republican
- DrydenWire Prediction: Republican
Ben’s Prediction
Yeah, so CNalysis has this district as a “solid Republican” but I don’t share their enthusiasm. Bewley did just barely win the last election, Quinn has more name recognition (mostly the good kind), and he should have no problem winning Barron, Burnett, and Washburn counties. The question is how well will he do in the northern counties of Ashland, Bayfield, and Douglas. He doesn’t need to win those counties to win but losing by a lot in those could see him losing this race. I think this will be closer than some are thinking but I do see Quinn winning this. If he does win, it will be the first time a Republican has held this seat in 36 years.
State Senate District 29
Candidates
- (D) Bob Look
- (R) Cory Tomczyk
Info
- Note: Incumbent Jerry Petrowski announced earlier this year he would not be seeking re-election
- DrydenWire Coverage Area Representing: Rusk, Sawyer (plus others)
- Last election (2018): Jerry Petrowski (R) defeated Richard Pulcher (D) 64.2 to 35.7
- CNalysis Rating: Solid Republican
- DrydenWire Prediction: Republican
Ben’s Prediction
This should be a slam dunk. Although Petrowski isn’t running again, I don’t see any reason at all that another Republican (Tomczyk) won’t win this seat. In fact, Tomczyk could win this race by more points than any of the other 9 races we’re tracking on this list (along with Gae and "Jimmy Boy").
7th Congressional District
Candidates
- (D) Richard Ausman
- (R) Tom Tiffany (i)
Info
- DrydenWire Coverage Area Counties: All (plus others)
- Last election (2020): Tom Tiffany defeated challenger Tricia Zunker 60.7 to 39.2
- CNalysis Rating: Leans Republican
- DrydenWire Prediction: Republican
Ben’s Prediction
This one is probably the race I have the most confidence in predicting. Tiffany shouldn’t have any problem winning re-election here. He may not win by as many points as others on this list but I’m very confident in this pick. Tiffany's last opponent (Zunker) had more money, legit credentials, and was running in a Democratic "blue wave" and still lost by 20 points. The 7th CD (the largest congressional district east of the Mississippi) is largely a red district. The only thing his opponent seems to have going for him in this election is that his name isn't Tom Tiffany and he's a Democrat. That will get votes, surely, but nowhere near what he would need to win.
U.S. Senate
Candidates
- (D) Mandela Barnes
- (R) Ron Johnson (i)
Info
- DrydenWire Coverage Area Counties: All (plus others)
- Last election (2016): Ron Johnson (R) defeated Russ Feingold (D) 50.2 to 46.8
- CNalysis Rating: Leans Republican
- DrydenWire Prediction: Toss Up
Ben’s Prediction
Oofta. If it were not for the fact that Johnson is a twice-elected Senator, that it’s a “Republican cycle,” and Johnson’s very effective advertising from his campaign alleging that Barnes advocates for defunding the police, I could see this going Barnes’ way. However, all of those things are things so I will go with Johnson winning re-election here.
Attorney General
Candidates
- (D) Josh Kaul (i)
- (R) Eric Toney
Info
- DrydenWire Coverage Area Counties: All (plus others)
- Last election (2018): Josh Kaul defeated then-incumbent Brad Schimel 49.4 to 48.8.
- CNalysis Rating: N/A
- DrydenWire Prediction: Toss Up
Ben’s Prediction
AG races typically align directly with the Governor’s race. If a Democrat wins Governor, so does the AG and vice-versa (typically). So because of my prediction for the Governor (see below), I will go with Toney here. If Evers wins, likely so will Kaul. It would be interesting, however, to see an AG and a Governor from different parties.
Governor
Candidates
- (D) Tony Evers (i)
- (R) Tim Michels
Info
- Note: Joan Ellis Beglinger is still on the ballot even though she dropped out of the race earlier this year. Also, there seems to be a campaign promoting her in an apparent effort to take votes away from Michels. You can read about that here.
- DrydenWire Coverage Area Counties: All (plus others)
- Last election (2018): Tony Evers defeated then-incumbent Scott Walker 49.5 to 48.4
- CNalysis Rating: Tilts Republican
- DrydenWire Prediction: Toss Up
Ben’s Prediction
Although many have this as a toss-up, I’ll go with Michels in this likely-to-be very close race. I’d feel more confident in this pick if Beglinger wasn’t on the ballot. If Evers wins this, it is very likely so will AG Kaul. This is the “top of the ballot” race. Which, honestly, seems silly. I have always felt that the races at the top of the ticket should be local first, but hey, that’s above my pay grade.
Well, there ya have it. I'm sure my picks will be way off but gave it a go nonetheless. If you're interested in seeing the CNalysis ratings, check out their website here.
Last Update: Nov 08, 2022 8:53 pm CST
